Archived Facebook Coronavirus Posts: March 2nd (second post)

[I'm transitioning a bunch of Facebook posts I made on the Coronavirus to my blog.  This was from March 2nd]

(More morbid coronavirus musings)

It just occurred to me that with Buttigieg and Klobuchar out, all potential candidates for the presidential election are now in the highest risk age group for Covid-19 fatalities, the 70+ range (I'm counting four Democrats and Trump here). So what's the chances that the coronavirus claims the life of one of the candidates before November?

Earlier, I estimated that 15% of the population was a reasonable estimate for how many American's were going to become infected by the coronavirus. With all the hand-shaking and baby-kissing that politicians have to do, I feel that it is reasonable to up the probabilities for our candidates to a full 25%.

Now, Covid-19 gets far more lethal with the age of the patient, all the way up to a full 15% fatality rate for the 80+ crowd (according to my current data). Our current crop of candidates are in the 70-80 range, though, so this gives them a much better 8% fatality rate. This gives an even 2% chance for each candidate that he or she will not make it to November, and a grand total of about 10% that *one* of the five will be picked off before the end (though not necessarily before dropping out for other reasons).